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China's new energy is getting cheaper and cheaper. Have new energy vehicles entered the "midlife crisis"?

2023-08-10 15:35:08
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In the world other than China, we still can't look at the problem so resolutely. Because for the new energy vehicle industry, the Chinese market is totally different from other markets in the world. Compared with the era of internal combustion engine, Chinese new energy vehicle enterprises and markets have left the rest of the world far behind. Therefore, even though the Chinese market has reached the middle age crisis, the outside world is still at a time of ignorance. In 2022, the global sales of electric vehicles will exceed 10 million, and the world's new energy vehicle market is showing an exponential growth trend.

 China's new energy

In 2022, 14% of all new cars sold worldwide will be electric vehicles, up from about 9% in 2021 and less than 5% in 2020. Among them, the Chinese market once again became the leader last year, accounting for about 60% of the global total sales of electric vehicles. At present, more than half of the world's electric vehicles are on the road in China. At the beginning of 2023, China has exceeded the sales target of new energy vehicles in 2025. The second largest market in the world is Europe. In 2022, the sales of electric vehicles will increase by more than 15%. In that year, more than one new vehicle sold in every five new vehicles will be electric vehicles. The third largest market in the world is the United States. In 2022, the sales volume of electric vehicles will increase by 55% and the sales share will reach 8%. In 2023, the sales of electric vehicles in the world will continue to maintain a strong momentum. The global sales of electric vehicles in the first quarter exceeded 2.3 million, an increase of about 25% over the same period last year.

The World Energy Agency predicts that by the end of 2023, the global sales of electric vehicles will reach 14 million, with a year-on-year growth of 35%, which means that the new purchases in the second half of this year will accelerate. By the end of this year, the global electric vehicles will account for 18% of the total vehicle sales. There are the role of governments to constantly introduce the latest policies and incentives to promote market sales, and there are also environmental factors that make many consumers unable to bear the high oil price and switch to new energy vehicles. There is no doubt about the dominant performance of the Chinese market. Last year, the sales of pure electric vehicles in China increased by 60% over 2021 to 4.4 million vehicles, and the sales of hybrid vehicles nearly tripled to 1.5 million vehicles. This achievement highlights the unilateral strength of new energy vehicles, because the total sales volume of vehicles in China's market in 2022 is 3% lower than that in 2021. In 2022, China's electric vehicle ownership will exceed 50% of the global total for the first time, reaching 13.8 million vehicles. This strong growth benefited from continuous policy support for more than ten consecutive years, as well as indirect support such as rapid promotion of charging infrastructure. At present, the forecast data of the world's leading research institutions almost unanimously show that the sales of new energy vehicles in China will further increase, and several strategic documents of policy makers have reaffirmed the goal of improving the degree of road traffic electrification.

Provincial governments are also supporting the adoption of new energy vehicles, and have formulated new energy vehicle targets. The International Energy Agency predicts that in the foreseeable 2030, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles across the country is likely to reach 40%. But the rest of the world is not so hot.

For example, in 2022, the proportion of American electric vehicles in total vehicle sales will rise from slightly more than 5% in 2021 and about 2% from 2018 to 2020 to nearly 8%. Last year, European electric vehicle sales accounted for 21% of all vehicle sales, up from 18% in 2021, 10% in 2020 and less than 3% before 2019. Also in 2022, the proportion of electric vehicles in China's total domestic vehicle sales will reach 29%, higher than 16% in 2021. From 2018 to 2020, the ratio is less than 6%. The gap between Europe and the United States, the world's second and third largest new energy vehicle markets, and China's market is still very significant, not to mention other markets in the world behind. This tells all car enterprises in China that even though the domestic market of new energy charging piles is "heavily involved" and is beginning to enter the middle age, the foreign market is still in a relatively early stage, and some early policy dividends are still clearly visible.

In fact, many automobile enterprises have already started to take action. According to the data of the China Automobile Association, the export volume of Chinese automobile enterprises from January to June this year was 2.14 million, up 75.7% year on year. Among them, 534000 new energy vehicles were exported, up 1.6 times year on year. However, in order to enjoy the cake of the world market, enterprises need to show real efforts. The leading foreign car companies have a longer technical background and sales accumulation. When Chinese car companies gradually invade their local market, the counterattack force here is predictable. The focus of competition among automobile enterprises must be the battlefield of R&D and innovation. Because the investment of foreign automobile enterprises in the research and development of new energy vehicles is very unbalanced compared with their current sales. In other words, once these foreign automobile manufacturers who currently invest huge amounts of money in the electric vehicle field achieve technological breakthroughs, their sales will inevitably increase.


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